The darkest hour

So, we have ended up here very quickly on what seems like an endless spiral downwards. But this isn’t another panicking Coronavirus article. This is my take on the situation from what I like to believe is an analytical and logical angle.

It takes at least 14 days for the results to be noticed when procedures are put in place, you have an incubation period where there are no symptoms, a period where the symptoms are mild and a period where you work your way through the system and into hospital. Remember, the only accurate figures at the moment are hospital admissions and deaths. Deaths could be recorded 10-30 days after the infection.

The government seems to be using the ‘we are 2 weeks behind Italy’ message to try to drive people into following the rules, everyone has seen how bad it has gotten there so it’s an effective message. For us to be ‘following’ Italy we would be putting in place similar restrictions exactly 14 days after the Italians implemented each one. This will not be the case as it assumes we have not learnt anything from Italy, it also assumes the same starting position but it looks like Italy failed to notice the sheer scale of the outbreak that they had.

I would have preferred Boris to give his measures from Friday a chance, they kept most of the economy running whilst trying to suppress the transmission. We need to learn to live with this virus in a sustainable way. But, in the end, I feel he was under so much pressure from other parties that he had no choice but to follow the lead of countries already in complete shutdown.

Hint of light

Now let’s try to be positive, we can’t change the past, we are in almost complete lock down and we are leaders, like Boris, not followers; we have businesses to run! Most rhetoric regarding the virus you come across implies we have made no progress since the Spanish Flu – the virus will spread like this and it will act like that; we will take 18 months minimum to come up with a vaccine.

Boris et al don’t want to be seen to be playing down the seriousness of the situation, they need people to follow their advice, however, it is very important for business leaders to see through the haze and work with reality, figures and logic.

· We have thousands of drugs already approved for human prescription. There is already evidence that at least a few of these help to some degree with Coronavirus. If we can put procedures in place so patients take these drugs before they get very ill they might not end up in ICU

· Knowledge – everything is being analysed at a faster rate than ever before using AI and any other method known to find patterns in the data. Who is at risk? What medications should you stop taking? How long does the virus last? What makes it worse? Why does it seem to affect disproportionate amounts of people with high blood pressure?

· Working in parallel – never before have there been so many centres around the world all with cutting edge research utilities, currently all these different brains from different cultures are working 24 hours a day to find solutions

· New methods of working – I am pretty sure that there are AI teams using this as a platform to see what AI can do to find a vaccination, especially seeing that Corona type viruses are difficult to immunise against because they mutate quickly. Other new methods will also be developed and employed.

· Test kits! Currently no one knows how many people have had the virus, advice is to not get tested and stay at home unless you are very sick or vulnerable. Once test kits are freely available accurate figures on who has the virus, who has already had it (antibody test) and who is immune would be game changing in controlling this outbreak.

Now while some of the above could be a long way off, some of it is not. Within 2 weeks we will be dealing with this in a different way and positivity will be creeping in.

I’m a business leader!

I hope Boris doesn’t like McDonalds too much, they probably shut down yesterday due to an unintended consequence of the measures Boris announced on Friday.

Boris announced the option for the government to pay 80% of the salary of workers laid off due to Coronavirus. This meant that over the weekend businesses had an extra option available to them of shutting down some or all of their operations. If a business feels that they would lose more money staying open, rather than shutting and claiming from the government, then this is the decision to take.

The above illustrates what happens when an outside influence applies changes to a system. Like blocking up a stream, the water flow will be disturbed and the course of the stream might change. In my lifetime there has never been such force for change applied so quickly. Some business changes are being accelerated, like working from home and remote GP appointments. Some business practices might never be the same again, like international business meetings. New business flows are being implemented and innovation has never been faster. To put it another way the current situation, whilst terrible for most, also will be the best opportunity for others who think of the right solutions or who are in the right place at the right time.

As business leaders we need to be using this time to think hard to steer our organisations through this time of difficulty and be stronger coming out the other side. All stakeholders are going to be looking at us for direction and clarity and accurate information, can you give it to them? Or are you just staring blankly at Boris every day like the masses. A forward-thinking leader will be prepared for opportunities that arise and ready for the changes that WILL occur. The darkest hour is just before dawn, will you be ready for the first glimpses of light?